This past election, we witnessed an impressive victory from Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Despite a double-digit victory over every other Democrat on the ballot, Republicans failed to unseat the incumbent Beshear. Voters around the nation watched the race closely with some arguing that it stood as a bellwether for Democratic fortunes in 2024. However, it was not just President Biden’s political future that was being weighed. Beshear himself has been a speculative presidential contender. For some, this past election stood as a test that might signal Beshear’s potential as a presidential candidate. In addition to clenching a victory in a deep red state, the Democratic governor Beshear continues to be one of the most popular Democratic governors in the nation boasting an approval rating of 60%.
A Potential Path Forward
While some might see a presidential run as outside the realm of possibility for Beshear, candidates with his background have precedent. Both Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were progressive governors from southern states before they pursued and won the presidency. These two attributes combined to create an attractive candidate for moderate voters. Additionally, both ran at a time when Americans were tired of the political establishment and were looking for a change. Both Carter and Clinton were running against candidates who already held the office but who ran lackluster campaigns.
If Beshear were to seek the White House, he would not have to rely on charisma alone. He also boasts an impressive track record that he can point to in a broader election. During his first term as governor, Beshear oversaw Kentucky’s all-time record for lowest unemployment over the longest period, the creation of 48,700 new jobs, and the best two-year period for economic growth in state history. Additionally, Beshear has helped to oversee a blossoming electric vehicle battery industry and billions of dollars in infrastructural developments. He has also stayed cool under immense pressure, successfully navigating the state through the COVID pandemic as well as destructive tornadoes and flooding across the state.
Beshear has also succeeded in his approach on abortion, one of America’s most divisive political subjects. While maintaining an identity as a firmly pro-choice candidate, Beshear has taken a cautious approach that will leave him palatable to many voters who have exhibited a growing desire to protect abortion rights. The Governor has staunchly opposed the unpopular Kentucky trigger ban and has supported exceptions for rape and incest, a view that the majority of Americans share. Beshear also might serve to represent a sharp break from America’s current political landscape. Currently, 63% of Americans have little or no confidence in the political system. Additionally, with 63% of Americans dissatisfied with the current choices of presidential candidates, a Washington outsider like Beshear might be exactly what voters are looking for.
With a political identity structured around his own personality and a guiding principle of bipartisanship, Beshear might avoid modern Democrats’ most glaring political shortcoming: President Joe Biden. Biden has consistently seen dismal polling with recent surveys showing a mere 41% approval rating. Recognizing this weakness, Daniel Cameron often drew comparisons between Biden and Beshear and attempted to tie them together. In addition to this, Cameron frequently touted a record of raising legal challenges to Biden policies. However, it appears that Beshear was able to successfully sidestep these attacks by occasionally acknowledging Biden’s collaboration with his administration but has avoided any deeper associations that might remind voters of the Governor’s party affiliation and its unpopular figurehead. This has allowed Beshear to continue to point to successes like the Biden-driven $1.6 Billion in Federal Funding for the Brent Spence Bridge Corridor Project, a proposal that will improve the infrastructure linking Ohio and Kentucky.
Uncertainty and Obstacles
While Beshear has an established record and has emerged victorious from the Republican challenge, the Governor is still not a shoo-in for a successful presidential run. Unfortunately for Beshear, the story of a Democratic governor who held onto their incumbency from a red state is not unique. Additionally, Beshear would not even be the first of this class to pursue the White House. Former Montana Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock turned heads when he held onto his office in a state that had gone 20 points for Donald Trump in 2016. However, his political strength did not translate to the national stage in 2020 and he failed to qualify for the first Democratic debate. He struggled to raise money and his identity as a moderate Democrat was not enough to woo primary voters.
Another unfortunate reality for Beshear may be his lack of congressional ties. In recent elections that have largely focused on Washington personalities such as Donald Trump, governors have proven to make little impact on Democratic voters. State-centric candidates have frequently found that their record on local improvements were not attention-grabbing and failed to compete with federal politicians who had direct access to national spectacles. Fundraising laws also present another major obstacle to governors. U.S. Senators can simply move their existing senate campaign funds to a presidential campaign fund, putting state candidates at a distinct monetary disadvantage right out of the gate. None of the four governors who ran in the 2020 Democratic primary succeeded in securing a single delegate.
Although he is a strong candidate, Beshear lacks the cult of personality that has been typical of past presidents who have risen from the statehouse. While he remains popular with many Kentuckians, the national stage will demand more than “Uncle Andy”. To win a nationwide election, Beshear must be able to create an identity as a national player and someone who can bring something unique to the presidency, but must also stay above the fray, distancing himself from an association with the political system Americans have become disillusioned with. Beshear must also be able to point to a record of improvement and faithfulness to policies while selling a presidency that will remain moderate and bipartisan. Ultimately, the Governor might be able to chart a course, but he has no clearly paved path to the Presidency.
Louisville Political Review 